2022 Home Values

Isaiah 3218. My people will abide in a principal habitation insecure dwellings quiet.

Rob was first describes what we are all looking forward to buying a home. Lately, rising values of made a difficult continue in 2022 mortgage expert, Dale Vermillion joins us to talk about the minutes on your calls at 800-525-7000 800-525-7000. This is moneywise life is well. Our guest Dale Vermillion is the author of navigating the mortgage maze. The simple truth about financing your home and since securing a mortgage is closely tied to home values. Dale has had to keep up with the rising housing markets and Dale were glad to have you back on the program here the opportunity appreciate it absolutely soaked a few months back when you're with us Dale. It looked like a skyrocketing home values were perhaps beginning to peek in some areas, but couple recent forecasts of indicated otherwise. So bring us up to speed on what you're seeing. Well, you know, we seen a 22% increase this year, year-over-year, and if you look at ALL predictable 13.6% rise next year.

Goldman Sachs at 6% by the end of next year so there's some differing opinions and there's more than just boat yeah well if those forecasts arrived to talk to us about what that means for homebuyers.

What I would not be great news is, you know, because affordability become one the major issues, but core logic who actually does an awful lot of work in the property value arena actually is a very different Rob nursing home your 2.3% raise next year. And the reason they're believing that is because we are seeing pretty good jump in interest rate over the last several weeks to speak to stay because inflation and other factors.

If that's the case that 2.2 would be a whole lot better listeners because if you want to buy. It's going to make affordability much better help them be better position want to come so that one with stoking the value of the property going home right now it interesting Dale, in your opinion, why such a big difference in these forecasts. I think you just have to look at the nature of one forecasts come from and the economic using so so so for sure Goldman Sachs. There are more looking at the aggressive side of the market that we were core logic really does use data that's based on what they believe is empirical data. It may take more emphasis into what the market is doing when you look at all those different economic models out there, it becomes pretty complex, but when you look at things like inflation will now be in the hydrogen over 30 years. When you look at rates rising when you look at back of the paperback on buying mortgage-backed securities and bonds.

When you look at our debt load united many conversations about that on the governmental level. These things all tell us that we should be in line for a pretty good increasing in interest rates on next. Sounds between 3.44 points zero are the projections in 2022.

When that happens, you start to see property values Lovelock I think core logic is going with with that kind of data entry states that means that the so-called good news using home values isn't all good for homebuyers if it's accompanied by rising mortgage rates. So at the end of the day. What is this all really mean. Then for homebuyers still couple of things. It is some good news because as you see these values start to drop what happened. Rob is always negotiating war that is really driven values and really created a lot of problems for buyers is going to go see a more normal market and when you think about what interest rates do. They don't impact greatly.

What happened half percent on a 250,000 alone. For example, it's only a $20 difference in the payments, but a 25 year loan so you're going to see affordability, line a little bit better than what you people opportunity to be a much better position financially. Very interesting. Well will continue to unpack this just around the corner of your homebuyers should you move ahead with your plan should you wait for values to level off. What is the change in interest rates are going to mean for you and what you need to know about securing a mortgage challenging times because that's just as important as it's ever been. Perhaps more hot sellers market will cover all of this and more with her good friend Dale Vermillion and author of navigating the mortgage maze. We'd also love to take your questions on homebuying mortgages interest rates whatever's on your mind today 800-525-7000 Dale Vermillion segment ready to take your calls. 525-7000.

This is live on Rob Webster hose phone lines are open for your calls and questions 800-525-7000 right in this first part of the program here today were taking her calls on the housing market perhaps buying or selling a home.

Also, mortgages in interest rates would love to hear from you. If you have a question related to that, Dale Vermillion. Our guest today, Dale is the good friend regular contributor to the program and the author of navigating the mortgage maze. The simple truth about financing your home, you can pick it up where ever you buy your books Dale before he takes some questions you have said that just before the break that we've already seen a rise in home values nationwide. Of 22% since the onset of covert and next year is forecasted to be another increasing year you think of perhaps 2.2% based on one study that uses data you like a lot, although between Cillo and Goldman Sachs. They're saying it could be as much is 13 to 16%. But the bottom line is nobody's causing calling for a decline or a decrease in home values which means were not in a bubble. This was brought on by real supply issues.

It's really just a matter of how much more will it go up as I write. It really is and you know what when you think about should I buy or should I not buy it really comes down to simple math you know we all have them housing payment. If you're in a rental position you're trying to figure out you want to buy based on work that you take what you're affordable rent payment. We talk about this all time. Rob you want to do budget.

First you what you can afford comfortably. Once you establish with affordable rent payment. You can back a mortgage that gets you in just a simple formula every $10,000 in additional value you add on at a 3 1/2% rate was about. We think right to be in 2022 on a 25 year loan. I know setting both of your lungs. I don't like your love for anybody trying to 25 or 20 get out of that you're only looking at $50 a month each time.

So, helps you determine okay I can afford this much of my rent payment today and if I if I had to have a little bit more value to get him work I go to still be with in my budget. What went start today, so it's a comparison. In general, you want to try to be in a home. If you can versus renting. You just stop ever in a position where you can afford that the best way to know that follow great budget over the rule of Dale again at 3 1/2%. What are they looking at per 10,000 in borrowing $50 per 10,000 on a 25 year term.

3 1/2% right so just can't helps you understand it. If I look today and left a wrench in my earlier $2200 and I back in the that I can afford that comfortably not backing yet so Much but I need a little bit more and I can work my budget allows it. You can you can use that simple map to determine how much you can get you and still be affordable and they might be surprised how much mortgage they cannot forgive them where rent prices are right now because as a result of the housing market that's driven rental rates up considerably right supply of supply and demand is demand. So the problem is that rents have gone astronomically high and a lot of market. So were a lot of people think you know we we just think about how much that loan amount is and it scares us, but when you compare the payment back and you think about the investment opportunity within a property you find.

You actually can get a pretty good value home in this marketplace today in most markets, cross-country, somebody is planning to buy a home there ready to do that and they can check those boxes you just mentioned they can get the 25 not the 30 year mortgage they can do it well within their budget which we would say is rule of thumb means more than 25% of your take-home pay going to your principal, interest, taxes and insurance.

They've got 20% down you encouraging them to go ahead and make that purchase. Now, given what you're projecting for next year.

I would because the triple .2% of the low side projection.

The 16% of the high side production increased again this is a national number you want to know your region because there are some regions that obviously do much better than others. You want to know how property visor in the region were fighting for example, right now if you area that people like to vacation in with all the work from home nationwide, but very very optimal homes to having people want the Bible faster than in other places in the country so you know your marketplace that you got reserves really talk about this. Don't put all your money down and leave nothing in reserve make sure you got reserves and make sure you put yourself in a good position to get a contract be a strong buyer with a good solid down payment and also make sure that you got a good solid preapproval anybody or lender get fully preapproved Job all your documentation she can present back to the realtor as a preapproved not a prequalified offer given what's happened in the housing market in the last couple years.

I would encourage you to plan to stay for at least 5 to 7 years were as we previously had said 3 to 5. If we had a recession couple years from now we could see a cooling of the housing market and we certainly would want you to be a position where you're ever upside down pilot sticks Dale Vermillion today 800-525-7000 is number to call. We have two lines open if it's a buying or selling a home. Perhaps a mortgage?

Would love to hear from you again.

800-525-7000 will begin today in Northbrook, Illinois, and I will talk to him on. Thank you for calling.

How can we help hi there, go right ahead calling to find out I home equity line of credit right before the pandemic begins our business stop working so we decided to take and change the roof of the house and told us at the moment that we could think was going to be a variable interest, but we could lock it, and whatever moment, or whatever time we want and we decided to go ahead and do the like to get not taking advantage of the low interest in the bank refused to lock it you not to lock the interest and they said no you have to go to another institution or if you decide to go with that. You have to make like aloe mortgage again. Our first mortgage and and I don't know if it's a good idea or how can I go about building a solid. Any thoughts on first IPO. I'm sure that they said that you did not do that, but a line of credit by nature doesn't have a fixed interest rate. It's kind of the wind on a country set up because they are based to adjust with the with the Fed rate there going on. Typically when you have to convert it to is in a fixed rate fixed term home-equity loan which you could do you have to pay out the whole mortgage… The proper your values probably go she probably can qualify for that. Even with that institution or another institution.

Or you could roll it into mortgage which want to look at is what your rate is on your current first mortgage what the rate is on your second mortgage to blend those two together and then compare to what a first mortgage rate would be if you refinance open what I would do is I would have a couple of mortgage companies. I would talk to and I would have them give you a straight second mortgage home equity loan offered to pay that off on a short-term basis what they got.

And then a second option to rapidly and with the first and see which one just give you better payments better terms. Overall she is. If you refinance it with the first don't we extend back up to €30 on your first mortgage of your 25 left. For example, make sure you go no longer than 25 years a week studying for my bat and also pulling that second mortgage and very good. Thank you so much for your call today. We appreciate that you pause for a brief break we come back much more with Dale Vermillion or yesterday. He's the author of navigating the mortgage made is the simple truth about financing your home. We got some folks waiting on Ian Watson about flipping businesses is usually flipping homes as a business gene is a stay-at-home mom has a question about getting into real estate.

Ronnie's wanting to know about home prices in his area that is much more right around the thanks for joining us today. This is moneywise live around West euros.

This is biblical wisdom for your financial decisions joining us today. Our good friend and regular contributor to moneywise live Dale Vermillion is a mortgage parole. In his book is called navigating the mortgage committees which by the way is based on solid biblical financial principles helping you make decisions to secure and find your home wisely deals with us for this segment. Perhaps one more take your calls and questions Dale before we head back to the phones what do homebuyers need to know right now about securing the mortgage, in particular in these challenging times and understand is that it's it's a very competitive marketplace out there when you're buying a home you want to again make sure you have the strongest possible buyer to the seller. You can base to make sure you do your homework and do that your homework, your budget like we talked about. Make sure you get on your documentation together before you ever talk to a lender your income documentation two years. Pace your W-2s and tax forms. Recent pay stubs, bank statements, mortgage statements, credit card statements.

The more you have, the better they can do their job after you get a contract in you actually get accepted one offer that's the key. If you do that you know your marketplace and your homework and don't overbid on properties. You're doing the right thing, not overbuilding is key especially when we get emotionally wrapped up in the property. We like the bidding war starts in wholesome decisions we wouldn't otherwise make so be on your guard there for sure. Thanks to you and let's head back sounds yeah exactly right. You gotta know what that Max's Rodney is in Fort Myers running. Thank you for your calls or how can we help all our condo back in March though by home apartment and then the market homes that were people have all home about nine $32,020 on the market this year for bringing born how the hell is that really relating nationally and formally going to come back down. Well let Dale way.

I will say Jim Henry is doing research for us today. Did look at the median home price in Lee County which right now sitting at about 300,022 1/2% from a year ago so that over the entire County does put it right in the center of the national average. Perhaps pockets of Lee County are seeing more significant moves to the upside in Dale, that's probably not surprising, especially in Florida is not very appealing market because there is no state tax because of a lot of factors are driven not become very popular climate almost, but here's the bottom line everything at some point is going to level off and we will see reversals in some marketplaces in the special markets in Florida. This could be the new norm for a while because were living in inflationary times and when you do this is what you see happen again it comes back to a personal budget decision and making sure you're never buying something Toward an understanding that in these markets like Lord of the very popular and there is very high demand with limited supply you're going to see continued pressure like I do now with the supply chain issues we got with new constructions. That's can even drive a little bit more, probably in those markets. So we are not. It's crazy doesn't make sense properties that fast but in the are little overinflated but it's what the market right now most of you children suffer the good Lord we just pray make decisions based on what you can afford and and and if you do that to be in good position to the key Iranians do your homework. As Dale said a moment ago. Set your max don't chase a home that is beyond your budget because buying too much houses one of the key budget busters. We want to be on our guard again so all the best to you will ask the Lord to give you some wisdom as you navigate these challenging markets, especially there in Florida. Let's stay. I will actually Arizona is where gene is located. Gina, go right ahead. Mom for nine years now and I'm ready to go out, get a job.

I normally go to work but I would like to really fade and I don't know if I have no clue about Billy so I'm going to try to get bad. I like pretty light looking quite wicked now for week know what went down your thought about going into really state budget.

I appreciate that.

I will say you've had perhaps one of the most worthwhile and among the toughest jobs is a stay at home. What are your thoughts on getting into real estate. Well, you know, the Arizona market is one of the probably top five markets in the United States when it comes to retirement communities and property value growth and people just wanting to live there, especially with the Exodus out of California so that's good to be a really great real estate market for a long time now place to be in the real estate market. That's a good one to look at and the key is just it doesn't hurt ever get your roasted license that classes can be very beneficial. I would I would pursue that and I would try to get somebody you know in the real estate market and you can kinda come alongside them. Let them enter you a little bit. That's a good way to get started marketplace and then you can cut a growth merit of the position, but that's a good market to be in when you look at markets in the US Gina, thank you for your calls stick around one more segment to Carla Patricia you hang on the line will get you just around the corner. Dale just about 30 seconds. Quickly realtors and mortgage brokers where are we right now in terms of the number of both of them versus where we have been receiving elevated numbers right now. I number well interesting, well still a great opportunity.

As Dale said, especially if you can get connected with somebody who could serve as a mentor and one of those two professions a lot of flexibility and a great job to have with us today. These are good friend and guess on mortgages and housing issues. He's going to stick around so you do as well. Think along with us today and moneywise live deal Vermillion questions on mortgages in the housing market right back to the phone, St. Cloud, Minnesota Ian, thank you for your patience. Karen and my wife and I are best friends are thinking about trying to get into the business of purchasing homes for flipping or potentially preventing not to get you a little bit of my life. My wife and I were were fairly young, and from there to so we don't have it you cannot cash at our disposal and we own our own home. Now that being said, we don't have a lot of equity into it really is not a deduction for him, but we do have multiple potential investors that that we know that our friends know my wife is a realtor and I'm also I am a remote contractor so we we have the skill set to operate it, but I just looking for any advice you might have for us as were thinking about and considering the deal would love your thoughts me know when a realtor Mary's remodel contractor. You almost have to go natural question, but I would say you keep start slow okay so with one get that remodel make some money on that one got a son-in-law who asked for my advice on this and my daughter have been great on what they bought one. They get it right, they bought like they had good solid records in their they did a little bit of work. They made a really nice profit. And now the second one as long as you go small with you're going to be fine with the knowledge you both have market understanding that side of the transaction with your building, call the deal. What is the rights amount of debt when you're getting into the rental business so you know, would you have a rule of that says here's when I know it's okay to go ahead and borrow for this next property. Do you want have at least 50% loan to value on these rental properties are can you run that up to 80% like you would with a new primary home mortgage. What thoughts do you have their yeah I would want to meet 80% I want to know more than probably 60 to 70% maximum 60% is a good number to use as a gauge on that you can build that you got plenty likely to work with protecting that scenario do not know then that will ensure that your 60% loan to value on these rental properties. Whether it's one or more than one that you got good cash flow that should be able to service the debt and give you something to put aside for maintenance, not to mention taxes and insurance right now. Could I see a lot of folks thinking about getting into the housing market. Although these prices make it more challenging than ever. Evanston, Illinois hi Rich, how can we help user hello Bill, yeah, I'm glad to talk to you and your so the blessing a lot of people think, so much so I have a mortgage of 4%.

Right now, and of course you don't make this a little people asking me if I want to write, refinance, how do I know which company to pick which organization any factors that I should be aware of.

So you only want to get three different offers and and you want to talk to know if you have a bank or credit union. Start with them first for your current lender that's always the first place to start talking one mortgage banker and one mortgage broker and then compare those three, not just on the offers are pretty close. Talk about your bill must come up with the most professional who's the one bill has the most ethical approach and if you happen to somebody example in your church that you got to. That's a great way to do it through a full get something that you can trust going to work percent. You're a good position to lower your rates are recommended very good Rich, thank you for your call today and I'll tell you what Dale is saying is so important for the largest transactions. Most of us will ever have just getting one bid is not enough. We got a shop around, make sure were getting the very best offering Rich all the best to you in days ahead. Our final color for Dale today. Tyrone is in Michigan. Tyrone, go ahead and mark off all actual and you know you because I don't know how to have her new home.

I live in the home, and hermetic. Now this kind of wonder, how can she do that without well she did was call quitclaim line to her in the nursing home that we maintain dealing familiar enough with the space to win. I think this is a legal question that I would I would get local counsel all that talk about because are so many state regulations that can come in to play along with national and all the other things.

This is something that I think you really need an attorney involved that question and I think perhaps even the first on is to contact the Social Security Administration. Just ask them to help you navigate this because clearly your income if it increases could make you no longer eligible for Medicaid and SSI so you need to go into this with your eyes wide open understand the implications.

As Dale said in SSA is great in terms of whether you set up an in-person meeting or virtual meeting. They can look at the details and give you some really specific counsel about this issue so you understand the implications before you do it so SSA.gov is the place to go to learn more about this, and to schedule a personal visit. I really appreciate your call today.

I Dale just as we wrap up here today what final thoughts do you have for folks as they think about navigating the housing in the mortgage market.

The room right now just we talked prepared and play.

Remember problem 24, three says, by wisdom a house is built to understandings established in his heart a man plans his course, but the Lord.

So committed to play or listen to the Lord. Follow that you can on your and you follow those rules to be absolutely yeah that's exactly right. And you said a couple of times. The goal is to get out of debt.

You even said as a mortgage broker. I'd encourage us not to take on a 30 year mortgage will that's not something you hear very often from a mortgage broker but your in game is for people ultimately mortgage is a great tool and if you use it wisely in your you got a asset that's appreciating, you're not overleveraged it's a good thing, but the endgame is to be out of debt to be unencumbered right great devices you should look at airway mortgage coaches and after some 20 year maximum mortgage ideal to get you out of debt much quicker build that well faster. That's what I would recommend anybody very good and finally Dale in terms of what we should be thinking about it with the expense on whether somebody's refinancing just getting a first mortgage. What's reasonable in terms of the percentage of the total mortgage that you should be expecting 25% and expenses no more than 2 to 3% to the mortgage company that will appreciate you stop was Dale Vermillion navigating the mortgage may stay with us much more to come on moneywise moneywise live question posed causing questions on anything financially hundred 525-7000 call.

It's Monday, which means it's time for our market segment with a good friend Bob Dole.

Bob is chief investment officer across market. Global investments where investments and values intersect. You can learn more across market. Global.com Bob you think you'll ever be a day on a Monday when you stop by and we say there's not a whole lot to talk about doubtful if you like the Q Mondays. We get the big swing only question is + or minus sign in front of that three digit number for the Dell today. It was a negative sign. As you know I sure do was down over 300 on the dalliance. So many things going on intersecting all the same time it seems like a lot of this depends upon what happens with the latest variants of the coated pandemic because that's really going to be the driver of monetary policy depending on how economies around the world respond and nations do as well.

Would you agree I do agree Robert part of the tail that wags the dog, meaning that it's a bit of an emotional issue because we just don't have tons of facts yet.

It's pretty clear that the variant is more contagious but less onerous than the last Delta.

One that we witnessed and so what markets are generally last week.

Speak up move. Assuming that Biltmore lockdowns and restrictions are few and far between but of course today little more concerned. Naturally, as we look into next year.

How would you gauge what's worth seeing now in Q4 versus what we would typically see what is that tell us as we head into 2022. Well were obviously witnessing a Fed that is shifting from its major concern being fighting employment or unemployment. I should say and is now fighting inflation. That's a big switch and I think markets still have more groping to figure out what that means. Needless to say we still have a good economy and good earnings growth, but it's a lot slower than the last few quarters.

What's that going to mean for 2022. I think that's investor my mind as well and of course how fast does the Fed turn around and raise rates after the accelerator, tapering through a lot of variables and they're not as positive as they were at the beginning of 20, 21, not negative, but not uniform. Are you expecting volatility to remain high. Yeah, I'm just beginning my 10 predictions for next year and one of them will have something to do with volatility. I think volatility will increase in 20 22/20, 21, and that's going to create more Monday like we talked about at the end of this call. That is a lot of volatility in both directions.

Rob, no question about its finally Bob Bonds are going to continue to be a challenging area. The market is moving to next year's well right yes the people who own the 10 year treasury of lost money this year, although, of late, the treasuries done a bit better yield today going out at 141.

My guess is a year from now when we talk on that number will be higher. That is yields will go up and bought bonds will go down in price all across the yield curve states all right. Well, we need to keep our expectations moderate for next year. Realizing that we have some headwinds but you're not seeing anything that would point to a recession or any kind of major economic problems on the horizon right no good way to summarize fully agree with that being sustained declines in stock markets occur when there's a recession we could have a short smack in the face that could be painful to live through but it'll come back with. We don't have a recession because in economical times earnings go up, and that's what most stocks are a very good listener probably won't talk to you until the new year. So, Merry Christmas, happy new year and will see what the next several weeks. Hold when we talk again in January. Thanks same to you all. Blessings, God bless you buddy that was Bob Dole chief investment officer across more global investments across more global.com is where you can learn more and as Bob said he's pretty well known up-and-down Wall Street for his 10 annual predictions will dive into those right after the first of the year and see what Bob thinks we have in store for 2022. Again, cross more global.com if you want to read Dole's deliberations. Sorry.

Let's head back to the phones we got a couple of lines open 800-525-7000. John is in Elgin, Illinois and John how can help user all which is better in terms of Medigap policy goals that are rated gauge if you gauge or community age graded yeah well you know you might want to look for the community rated and issue age graded policies because even though the premiums are higher John they won't increase as you get older and so yeah I like that option for you all. All policies increase pain premiums to keep up with the climbing healthcare policies, but some not as much as others so I would focus your efforts on the community rated in the issue age graded policies.

For that reason, hopefully that's helpful to you sooner. We appreciate your call today.

Kirsten is in Illinois as well. Kirsten Beretta writing mortgage.

I'm a little I have to wait three years ago get better at home I worked at home by with the fact that you know that the change in interest to court not lacking in acreage at the home two years ago I decent rate 3.5. Someone had told me who got captured by looking for another opinion verifier, not natural and the kid killed security combat what each my old and he will be 17 in April and I'm looking to see if I had been putting no chunk of money toward my mortgage and I'm just basically pay for my market, so I'm trying to look ahead to re-amortize is not looking to refinance.

Don't get great great food kind.

I flipped last year absolutely and Kirsten, I'm so sorry to hear about your husband's passing. Thank you for your call SSA.gov will be a great resource if you have questions about your specific situation had set up a time to talk to them directly, but just generally speaking, so security benefits for your children stop when they reach age 18, unless there full-time students in elementary or secondary education. In that case, it could continue until age 19 in two months so 19 years old in two months up Social Security no longer gives survivor benefits to children who are in college so it's that 18 year mark again unless they're still in elementary or secondary education the exception of that would be a disabled child where benefits continue. There's no age cut off for that is that helpful secondary little high school crack site So beyond high school is no longer, they don't provide benefits beyond high school. That would be the secondary education so appreciate your call today. Listen, I think knowing that as soon as you can and then planning on that as you said, perhaps taking steps to right size the budget.

Whether that is in fact re-amortization or downsizing.

You hopefully doesn't come to that, but obviously want those numbers to balance of part of your income is going away. You need to deal with that. Accordingly, our money was coaches would be delighted to help you as well.

If you have questions you want somebody to walk with you to set up a budget, just visit our website moneywise live.org and Kirsten.

We appreciate your call to finish today in Miami Florida show Linda thank you for calling.

How can I help you sometime in January so he could be doing with light. It yes balance roughly show Linda and that for 3B to what hear about night 999 patent okay and do you have another job lined up and trying to get a leg up like them to go back to school so what I would say is if you were going to go to a job that offered a 401(k) or 43B, probably that there with your current employer even want to separate until you get reestablished and then roll it into the new 401(k) or 43B, just to keep everything in one place, especially since there's a smaller balance and will give you one less account to keep up with and then you start contributing to the new 43B as you move forward.

Setting aside each pay period for retirement. If you're not planning on going back to work full time because you're going to school and you don't have access to company-sponsored retirement plan that I would probably roll it out to an IRA with one of the brokerage firms like Charles Schwab or TD Ameritrade.

Perhaps Vanguard and that you could use one of the Robo advisors as well like the Schwab intelligent portfolios or the Vanguard advisor that would give you a low cost way once it's rolled into the IRA, which is not a taxable event to deploy this this money into an indexed approach to investing, which just means you can capture the broad moves of the market based on questions that you would answer so that the portfolio is built based on your age and risk tolerance, objectives, but again it's low cost really well diversified that could be a great way to go to check out Schwab intelligent portfolios in the Vanguard advisor is two options and all the best. That's good for us folks moneywise live as a partnership between Moody radio moneywise media think it is in Anderson Rios Tidwell Jim Henry team make it all happen today.

Thank you for being here as well join us tomorrow.

I'll be here, Lord willing, will see