Beginning of the End, or Business as Usual?

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Mark always great to have you on the program. Thanks Rob back with well looking forward to diving into this, especially amid the recent market volatility. Talk about your recent article in the SMI newsletter beginning of the end or business as usual. I know you wrote this several weeks ago now, but I want you to tell us what's going on from your vantage point that prompted you to write this so back in mid-September when I first wrote this stock market was down a few percent of its size, but investor sentiment was getting really bearish at that point.

In fact, the thing that really grabbed my attention was the investor sentiment survey was showing that investors were more bearish. A month ago than they'd been at any point since the March 2020 bear market bottom and that was with stocks just, you know, maybe 3% off their high on top of that, it was clear from some of the positioning data that investors were really heavily hedged.

Already against a bigger market decline. So it was in that environment of really, rapidly rising fear that I wrote this article that were talking about today argue that any further pullback from that point was likely to be pretty mild rather than real, severe, and I had some reasons and therefore that and that's really what's unfolded in the weeks since then, but I really want to emphasize that while all of that sounds like I was making some big market timing call that things are to be great. The point article Rob was actually the exact opposite of that. Not what I was really trying to accomplish was encouraged SMI readers to not make a market timing call by abandoning their long-term plan and letting all the noise, the rising tide of bearishness that was all over the news right then to scare them out of the market and you know it's worth noting at this point. Now that is the markets recover. The last few weeks. Some of that bearishness has gone away.

So things do look a little bit different today than when the article 1st came out but I think there's still a lot of helpful points that we can draw from that article, I think we absolutely can mark. Why do you believe, at least at that point and obviously love this continues today. Why are investors so pessimistic yeah you know a number of factors.

I think one big one is that investors can see how far this markets runs since those March 2020 lows. So the last 18 months or so. We've had the stock market basically double. It's been a full year now since we've had even a 10% correction so there's kind of the feeling that the market may be overdue for a bigger decline but there also some more you know the obvious immediate challenges on the political side we've had this debt ceiling issue we got this massive infrastructure bill squabble going on and a lot of people are. You know, probably rightfully concerned that maybe borrowing another 3 1/2 trillion dollars for more social spending may not be the best thing for us right now we've got the Fed clearly wanting to start to take the punch bowl a little bit by tapering some of their monthly bond purchases you got a lot of the aggressive government support from the last 18 months recently rolling off so a lot of factors.

Inflation a lot of things that make people nervous as they look ahead to next year now and working to continue to unpack that talk about whether we should be concerned as investors are about the present state of things will also size this up in terms of what that means for your portfolios will begin taking your questions as well. What's on your mind related to the markets investing your portfolio in your future Mark Bill are here today that answer those questions. We love to hear from you got lines open and will be taking those calls at 800-525-7000 800-525-7000 sound mind yesterday. Stay with us much more to come just around thanks for tuning in the moneywise live in hostesses. The program we recognize that God owns it all. Money is a tool to accomplish God's purposes and were stewards where money managers for the King of Kings, which puts us in a really exciting position to manage the Lords resources.

The question is how do we aligned those resources with the Council Scripture, there is a lot that the Bible has to say about how you and I should manage God's money well. Each day we mind those passages and apply them to what you're dealing with and today were talking about the stock market investing joining us for this segment is a good friend Mark Miller markets executive editor of sound mind and you can learn more@soundmind.org today were talking about a recent article that Mark wrote for the SMI newsletter called the beginning of the end or business as usual and Mark just before the break you were explaining some of the reasons that led to this incredibly negative sentiment on the part of investors and I'm curious, do you think we should be concerned about the present state of things rather tricky and I rattled off this awful sounding laundry list of things after I just said I was writing an article arguing that those things shouldn't be scaring us out of the market. So how do you reconcile all of that and that that's really where time frames become very important and I do think that a lot of the things that I just mentioned, you know, they are probably going to be concerns as we look ahead a few quarters.

In the essay the middle of next year, and so forth.

It's not that these things aren't real, or that they don't have actual implications.

The thing about about this article and where I was coming from is that it was really hard for me to believe that some kind of a significant correction was imminent and that was in part because there were so many people looking for that type of eminent correction and positioning for one and one thing that a lot of investors don't recognize as the market tends to move against whatever position the majority of investors currently have. So when investors collectively rush to one side of the boat like they were doing a few weeks ago and getting real fearful the boat more often than not, attends the to back the other way to balance things out, and that's kind of what we seen as the market has popped back higher. So another you know another way of looking at that Rob is that the time for concern is usually when everyone's really excited and optimistic and nobody's playing any defense not when everybody's already scared and piling into these defensive positions. Yeah, no doubt about that, and that's obviously the key. I won't ask you for a firm prediction. But how are you sizing all of this up to me. Take everything you just said and talk about where you think we go from here.

Yeah, sure. So one caveat that's pretty important is SMI uses trend following processes that don't let us stay on the wrong side of market trends for very long. And that's important because short term stuff like were talking about today really plays a very minimal role in how we make investment decisions. If if I'm wrong about everything that were talking about today. The SMI strategies are slow to respond to what the market action is doing, regardless of any beliefs or things that I think so. I sell that we got the benefit of a safety net when were evaluating this kind of short term stuff but big picture. As were looking out say in the next year. There are some risks to be concerned about. We have some pretty highly valued markets. We got some potential growth challenges for the economy ahead. You know this was was more of a short-term focus than what were usually looking at and we don't usually focus on that kind of stuff, but with that all said, there's really nothing that makes me especially concerned right now that something bad is imminent for the markets unite. I see an economic reopening that got kinda delayed by the Delta Cove invariant that seems to be back in motion again, the economy seems pretty strong. People seem eager to spend just last Friday, we got some really encouraging surprisingly strong retail sales numbers and so all of that just makes me think the base case, the most likely path is probably that the markets keep looking pretty decent through this last quarter of the year so you know next year.

Sure, I'm a little more concerned about that before next year next year so all all of that, the rabbi, I really do want to reiterate that all of this was really about encouraging people to stick with their long-term plans and not get scared into selling it's less about making some bold bullish call that things are to be great is really more about encouraging people to stick faithfully to their long-term plan because that's really where the the success.

The secret sauce in this investing thing is is sticking with a good long-term plan. This idea we read about in Scripture Mark study plotting has a lot to do with what you're describing right here Mark Bill are here today is so willing and excited to take your phone calls on investing. Here's the number 800-525-7000 got some lines open.

That's 800-525-7000 in just a moment will be talking to Michael and Colorado Springs. Let's first go to Belinda in Chicago Belinda you're on the program. How can we help and I was a bank account not going so I was thinking maybe I need about an annuity.

I'm not sure what that is the rent that's not a good media. That's the part you can be fairly tight and I cannot wait to start growing. Would I be happy to give Mark to win the first of the just understand the context a bit more about your situation. This money that you have put aside that you want to invest is that money that you've earmarked for the long term, i.e. 10 years or beyond edition great and that's in addition to your emergency fund. You have a liquid savings account that separate from that okay great and you have a company-sponsored retirement plan available at work like a 401(k) or 43B Last Monday and they do offer the 401(k) I actually speak at this kind of concrete and how much are you putting in what percentage of your salary. Do you know okay great all right last question you have any's consumer debt of any kind, credit cards or student loans anything like that. Okay, great. So Mark, she's in a great spot emergency fund. No consumer debt.

She's got this 15,000 and a new 401(k) where should she focus her energies and what about this idea of an annuity. Yeah, I love it that you checked all the boxes I'm getting that firm foundation in place that's that's great index annuities were generally not real big fans on largely because most annuities tend to come with a lot of fees and so usually you can accomplish what an annuity is trying to accomplish less expensively and other ways with with the 401(k) that you're starting that's wonderful. If this is his longer-term money, I would probably be be inclined to look and to a Roth IRA and starting to put that money into a Roth IRA using traditional mutual funds like you are mentioning.

Initially I like that better because you can do that on a much lower cost basis and still participate in the markets upside which is what an index annuity is is trying to do is capture that upside now it doesn't give you as much downside protection. And that's where the long timeframe that Rob was was asking about comes in because if you do run into a bear market. You need that that longer runway to be able to have time to have that recover but there there any number of good ways to invest that we have some some good starting material on our sound mind and the things site about how to do that exactly what I would.

I would encourage you to look into putting that money into a Roth IRA and in using some good stock equity funds, maybe even some of the same ones you have available through your 401(k) that you can purchase through your Roth IRA Rob. Any other thoughts on how I couldn't agree more.

Mark agreed thoughts I would agree about opting for the Ross.

In addition to the 401(k) instead of the fixed endorphin of the indexed annuity.

For the reasons you mentioned.

And I think Belinda that as you look at this. The goal is to get your total contributions between the 401(k) and the Roth up to between 10 and 15% of your pay if you do that for a long period of time with the compounding effect and the high-quality funds that Mark was describing. You'll be well on your way to having what you need in the retirement season of life.

And finally, I would also encourage you to check out sound mind.org. The SMI newsletter will be a wonderful resource to give you those mutual funds are looking for.

You know exactly what to buy when appreciate call 105-7000 back to moneywise like biblical wisdom for your financial decisions moneywise media moneywise live or listener supported part of our community rely on this program.

All of the resources available moneywise live.org and in the moneywise we would be grateful for your partnership with us financially. You can do so@ourwebsitemoneywiselive.org just click the donate button and you'll see that between now and the end of the year is our way of saying thanks for gift of $25 or more will send you a copy of the great new book from Paul David Tripp redeeming money. It's our way of saying thank you, when you support this ministry again moneywise live.org just click donate taking your calls and questions for Mark Miller will be going back to the funds in just a moment, Mark. We were talking about the state of the market to some of the pessimism among investors in the current state of affairs if you will, in our economy. I'm curious your thoughts for folks that in the midst of this raging bull market are finding that perhaps for their age and risk tolerance goals and objectives. Maybe they were waited too heavily toward stocks because they didn't want to miss the downside and now this market volatility has them a little spooked. Is this a good time to look at whether you have the proper allocation in your portfolios in our about another. There's ever a time that isn't the perfect time to look at The right allocation unit one of the foundational rules that sound mind that we harp on all the time and never take more risk than you need to to accomplish your goals. You need to keep in mind and in the financial media can really take your eye off the ball at this point, but the goal is not to amass the biggest pile you can. The goal is to reach retirement with the resources that you need to be able to sustain your your lifestyle and meet your expenses and so forth. And those are two very different things. So if you have been over allocated perhaps to stocks you noted, that's been a fortunate thing over the last year. Stocks have done very well, but this may be a perfect opportunity than to reevaluate. In light of the gains that we've had over the last 18 months, and if you think that you can meet your financial goals with a lower level of risk than yes by all means, look at ratcheting that down because as we discussed earlier Rob. There are a number of things that as we look ahead, you know, six, nine, 12 months there. There are some legitimate concerns out there so yeah you it's a good time to answer it because I love you Val you know time is what I'm hearing, and that makes love you Melissa back to the phones today. Michael is in Colorado Springs and Michael. How can we help thank you very much I'm 61 years old. My wife is 56 and I'm planning on retiring maybe 80, not 75. I haven't put anything away and she worked for Walmart where she has a 401(k).

She has some stock and little bit of other things at work, but we haven't done anything. Nothing is going anywhere and we haven't seen really any improvement in that area so we go with the brokerage firm to go with nowhere to go next. Very good. Mark your thoughts. Yeah, I think that the 401(k) that she mentioned Michael is a wonderful first step.

That's something that's already set up.

It's going to be a very low cost, very efficient way for you to be able to do quite a bit of saving right there and probably have access to very good investment vehicles usually can can get a good chunk of that income put away in savings talking like 15%.

If you are able to to save that much can go right there without having to go outside of that umbrella to another source. If you are able to save even beyond that, than I would encourage you as we just talked about with Belinda to potentially look at a Roth IRA for additional savings beyond that 401(k). That's a wonderful tax-advantaged way to save more for retirement and that will give you an even broader range of investment options. Roth IRAs can be set up basically with any mutual fund company or any brokerage company Schwab fidelity those type the company so you got a lot of options there is a great thought and I would do some planning Michael around this. What is your budget going to look like and how much do you need what will your wife's 401(k) likely be able to generate.

In addition to Social Security and how much more ground you need to make up that'll give you a target for what you're trying to say to take a quick break and we come back more of your calls and questions for Mark Miller were talking investing in the market moneywise live you along with us today and moneywise live a Rob Wester close with this segment of the broadcast, Mark Miller, executive sound mind that you can learn more sound mind to write back to the phones, Muncie, Indiana hello Eric, very well, thank you so much for this 47 years old and I basically am starting over with retirement. I have about two years of retirement work truly blessed me about 10% of my income into my retirement currently have hundred percent of it in stock market is doing so well, but earlier so I didn't know what would be a good lit. Should I invest the majority of safer mutual fund or what direction should I go there is 47 years old and starting over with his 401(k). Mark your thoughts on the right allocation.

Yeah, it's tough question Eric because right now with interest rates so low and with actually starting to creep higher bonds are not a real attractive place you know as people get older and closer to retirement or in retirement. It still makes sense to own some. Even though the dynamics around interest rates and bonds are not great right now and the reason for that is really for the. The ballast in the portfolio bonds tend to hold up pretty well when stocks fall when they go through these temporary bear markets and corrections so bonds can still makes sense and that that respect. If nothing else that stocks fall on the bonds hold steady the bonds can provide some some dry powder to reallocate into stocks that lower prices so there are number reasons why we build the safety of bonds into a portfolio, even if were not super enthusiastic about the, the outlook for bonds in and of themselves.

Hopefully that makes makes sense now at 47 years old. I don't personally feel like there's big need to have a large bond allocation. We are a little bit more aggressive.

That sound mind and that some some advisors would be somewhere it would be layering in decent bond allocation already at this at this age. You know, we tend to look at it as something that as you're moving up into your 50s you want to start building up that bond allocation.

Little by little, I wouldn't be especially concerned about about that right now but it's something.

Over the next say 5 to 10 years. You're certainly going to want to start thinking about creating a bond allocation within your overall portfolio so all that to say Erica, I don't think you're in a bad spot right now, being 100% stocks. Now you just have to know what that means. If we do that, into a bear market, you don't have the the ballast the protection there so that's the trade-off your ear and a riskier allocation, more upside, but less protection. On the downside, so that's something that you know over say the next 5 to 8 years probably want to start start layering and a little bit of bonds. We have some some allocations that and in what we call our seasons of life table that helps people see at different ages. What appropriate stock, bond allocations might look like there are more general guide rules and guidelines than any fixed rules for individuals, but that might be something that's worth looking at. If you're interested over a sound mind and.org Rob, what are your thought.

I couldn't agree more. Think you're right on Eric. We appreciate your call today to Hoffman Estates, Illinois hi Kurt, how can we help you, how you doing today very well okay call? I retired from AT&T and they have a 401(k) whether or not font up to 5% following prevent program and I think we might've lost Kurt see if we can get him back know okay I can see the question that he avoids to our call screener Mark. He is retired. I want to know how he can grow his retirement income to last the rest of his life and occurred. We have you back on the line greatly. I want you just finish your questionnaire will get marked away about how to Walmart and, minimum with my life.

I have a pension that I was with rolled over fidelity okay will you have in that Fidelity account.

What's the market value on the right and have you started to draw an income off of that yet. And, for that you know how much sampling I want some typically pouring down around 12,000 to supplement my salsa. Okay €12,000 to 266,000 and that about covers it in terms what you need to have all the while you and all your expenses and income drawdown. Yeah. Very good. Mark pulled about 4 1/2%.

What are your thoughts yeah that that's a reasonable amount to be withdrawn Kurt so I don't see any issues there in that regard. You know one.

One thing that as were having to deal with higher inflation here this year for the first time in many years is retirees are having to look at things a little bit differently than we had to lately where inflation is pushing expenses higher and the question is how do I keep my portfolio keep my income growing in proportion with those higher inflation rates and higher expenses and one of the big things. Kurt in that regard is that you don't want to pull too much money too quickly away from a riskier parts of the portfolio and by that I mean stocks that sounds kind to encourage retiree to pump the brakes on getting out of stocks, but stocks are the way that the portfolio is likely to keep up with higher rates of inflation.

That's not to say go heavier and the stock is more of just a caution to say one way to keep the portfolio growing is to not get too conservative too quickly you want to have that blend of stocks and bonds and it is it is a tight rope of sorts. You got this tension between that need for growth.

On the one side and trying to keep risk as low as possible. On the other side.

So those those are mutually competitive goals that does make it kind of tricky but if you got a good mix in your ear able to meet your expenses right now that would be the thing that I would keep an eye on. Unfortunately, there are many easy answers on the bond side. Rob yeah exactly right great counsel currently appreciate your call today.

Mark Miller's been our guest today to take your calls on anything financial just around the corner hundred 525-7000. To learn more about someone investing read this article we've been discussing beginning of the business as usual visit sound mind.org Mark, thanks for being with us.

Thanks for tuning in to moneywise live biblical wisdom for your financial decisions are probably lighted just about talking to Beverly gurney Illinois. She was riveted her portfolio. Andres wondering whether it's a good time to start shopping for a house. We'll talk about that in a moment the first Indianapolis, Indiana hi Nicole, how can I help my short-term Q, five-year-old to be able to enjoy my yeah I understand this is a give us busy, but I'm sure exciting household with those almost teenagers and five-year-old you said short-term Nicole tell me what you're thinking there along with the time horizon be what you want to be able to enjoy our 401(k) that we are involved with their IP tax and I got an account. Just a little extra. How can we get back know it makes sense. I'm glad to hear you checked all the boxes and imagine your debts is under control in you got that emergency fund. You're also contributing for the long term.

My only hesitation Nicole is just that time horizon.

Really, anything less than five years or 10 years and certainly less than five years. You probably don't want to put this at the risk of the stock market, you know, there's just too much short-term volatility for you to be able to have any kind of expectation that money you put away for 12 months, or even 24 months. You know is going to be, you know at least what you put in because you know we've got enough headwinds that you know at the tail end of this bull market cycle, even if it continues to run for a bit. We could you know find ourselves in a recession.

I'm in the economy and the markets work in cycles, and we've had a long run in this current cycle doesn't mean we know when it's good it's our turn over, but it will at some point in your you could find yourself 12 months or 18 months from now lower than where you started and so I think for that reason money that you want to protect first and have access to in less than five years. You don't need to be investing in stocks and bonds, so unfortunately that means you're not can get a whole lot in terms of return what I'd be doing is just sticking that in high yield savings account, probably alongside your emergency fund and that way at the very least, if the market was down, you know, 20 or 30% which it could be in the recession.

It would eventually recover but you may not have the time horizon to wait for that recovery to work to occur and so from that standpoint I think about the best you can find least days about 1/2 a percent a year and a high yield savings at something like Ally or Marcus or capital one 360 may not be what you were looking for Nicole, but I think you just given that time horizon, there's gonna be too much risk for you to do anything else. Does that make sense though yeah I think that's the place to be because anything else would just be speculation and that's just a losing proposition. Really we need to invest for the long term because we can't pick the top or the bottom and to try to pick one particular company or a couple of companies that we think is going to do well in the next year. It's really not the setting up of steady plotting approach that the Bible talks about when it comes to investing, so I just unfortunately I stay put with that savings account good news is, at this point it's about the return of your money not on your money because you want to make sure that what you have saved is available when you're ready to use it in 12 months. And that's going to be the way to go. We appreciate your call today. Thanks for checking in with us on to New Mexico hi Marcy, how can I help you I it's okay IIII like church when I Fail so all term abortion capital. There are a lot of spirit that I get really need to be changed. I would like to be able to contribute to candidates who are very open about their and I wonder to encourage you not appropriate. Yeah, well, a couple of thoughts and let's back up and talk about the types were secondly clearly we see the tithe in the Old Testament, even before the law of Moses with Melchizedek and Abraham and then clearly was a part of the Jewish law and there was actually multiple times with the word tide means attend to and we see in Malachi bring the whole tithe into the storehouse, the temple, which would be most can today to the local church.

So I think you were going to apply the principle of the tide. Even though were now under the law of Christ.

We don't want to be legalistic about it.

We want to follow the pattern of the New Testament give cheerfully and give generously give proportionately as well, which I me, which I believe means systematically so I like the principle of the time in terms of a starting point for giving because the word time means attend that be a great place to start as well and for me I would put that toward the local church and then I would absolutely encourage you to give beyond that, to look for where God is working in your life and meeting the needs of others around your convictions and obviously God's given you a conviction to align your values around political candidates that are going to promote those values that are very important to you and you believe come right out of scripture and I would absolutely affirm the idea of you doing that for me I just wouldn't see it as a part of the time, but at the end of the day you're giving is between you and the Lord.

I think you ought to just pray through that and make a decision as to what are you going to give to support the local church and then beyond that. Where are you going to give where God is really captured your heart and you believe aligns with what he's doing in the world and I can absolutely firm this idea of supporting political candidates that line up with that so hopefully that's helpful to you.

I think at the end of the day.

Just take this up with the Lord and ask him how he would have you to proceed and we appreciate your call today on to gurney Illinois hi Beverly, how can I assist low quick question. I am 72 years old so I'm not a spring chicken what I want to know is, I have a lifetime annuity so I'm getting my monthly stipend from that I have my Social Security. I tried to put my Social Security away into savings and live off of my annuity and another entity that I have. My question is I do have money saved in the bank which it's getting like maybe 1/2 a percent is there something I can invest in that would help that to grow or should I just keep doing what I'm doing.

My house is paid for. I have no credit card debt. I have at least six months to cover bills so ideas please yeah so if I understand correctly, the Social Security plus the annuity which is Artie been annuitized and is paying you out monthly is that writer okay in both of those together, the annuity stream and the Social Security are enough to meet your monthly obligations correct little tight but I tried.

I definitely work to make it meet. Okay great and then what you have in addition to that, that you are considering investing how much actually probably about $75,000 okay and that's currently sitting just in a savings account after okay and this is money you'd like to grow and at some point used to fall back on if you had expenses beyond what you're able to fund through the annuity and the Social Security whether that's medically related or something else. Is that right yes okay yeah so I like this idea. You gonna want to use a mix of stocks and bonds where you would look at probably the vast majority of it being in a fixed income type portfolio, but where you have a portion let's say 30% that's allocated to stocks that would could kinda provide the growth component of the portfolio which would allow this to hopefully outpace you know them.

The meager returns on the fixed income portion. But if the market was down. If we had a recession, you wouldn't sell that you value the ideas that you would hold onto it, let it recover, which historically you know it always has. We work our way through any kind of recession that we've experienced prior to this time and you know if the Lord tarries and you're in good health. This money you know needs to last you several decades and so you know that would be there to provide some of that growth engine if you will. How do you actually accomplish that. What of the actual what's the actual allocation. The mix of stocks and bonds in the actual mutual funds, you would select well I I'd recommend you visit with our friends and sound mind.org to talk about that and they could actually give you those mutual funds that you would want to invest in or you could find a certified kingdom advisor there in Italy, Illinois. You just had to our website moneywise live.org and just click find a CK and this would be a professional who says has significant experience, but who's also been especially trained to bring a biblical worldview of money alongside their professional advice and that individual could actually build this portfolio and manage it for you, but I think the idea would be that you have this working for you. Generating a stable return then also having growth component where the overall annual return objective might be for 5% a year so that this money would you continue to grow, you'd have it down the road is that sound like what you're looking for a very you're welcome sound mind.org or moneywise live.org just click find a CK. We appreciate your call.

Let's get to do it for us folks we covered a lot of ground today. We appreciate you being alone with us. We say thank you my team today.

Rios, Dan Anderson, Jim Henry, so glad to have them along with us today, making what I do sounds easy and I can do this tomorrow. I'll be here as we continue to unpack God's principles for your financial decision moneywise live is moneywise