Preparing for Recession

How do you forgive a dead man, particularly when he's her grandfather Brian Dahlen in a brand-new podcast called grandfather.

I hope to find out it over to the grandfather subscribed to consider ways and be wise, cheap repairs are bred in the summer and gathers her food and harvest, Rob West, Proverbs 6 tells us that we must be careful whatever lies ahead will talk about what that means for your investment. Should we enter a recession. We have some great questions lined up for you: today because we are free recorded. This is moneywise live goal is for your financial decision well-versed provide for our needs. Joshua 19 is a favorite of mine is a powerful reminder. It reads by not commanded you a strong and courageous. Do not be frightened and do not be dismayed, for the Lord your God is with you wherever you go with that said, we must also do our part preparing as the app does for possible hard times ahead and there are increasing indicators that the economy may be heading into a recession well in one sense we're always heading into a recession because they're inevitable. We just don't know when the next one will come, but plenty of economists are now predicting that the US will enter a recession this year for several reasons. The war in Ukraine interest rate hikes decreasing economic growth and wealth. Skyrocketing inflation. Investors of listening to these dire predictions say CNBC survey showed that 81% of us now think will see a recession in 2022 a Reuters poll revealed that 40% of economists think recession will hit within two years. So what does that mean for your retirement portfolio while investment advisors are weighing in with their advice and it's interesting to note that much of it is what we say here every day for starters, think beyond the next recession whenever it may come as a long-term investment plan and stick with it. Recessions are always temporary in market downturns are as well. Trying to predict or time the market is difficult for the smartest brains on Wall Street, consider all the managed funds that do no better than index funds, and sometimes much worse study by the American enterprise Institute showed that from 2011 to 2020. Investing in an S&P index fund yielded three times that of the average hedge fund. Now what should your long-range investment plan look like well first, it should be based on your time horizon when is your best estimate for retiring. Ideally you want that day to be at least 10 years out here a target date fund can be a big help, that these are mutual funds or exchange traded funds, ETF's that rebalance your portfolio periodically shifting to more conservative investments as you near your retirement date.

Robo advisors do much the same thing their digital platforms that use algorithms to manage your investments without human supervision and other key part of your long-term investment plan should be dollar cost averaging, that simply means you contribute a set amount to your retirement account every pay. No matter what that means when the markets up and shares are expensive you buy fewer of them. When the markets down and shares are cheaper to buy more of them. Then when the market recovers well those additional shares, you blog will increase in value right along with it. But if you sell during a recession, you lose out on locking your losses if you feel you must tweak your portfolio the time to do it is before recession hits, not after.

In that case you might look at what are called safe haven investments. These would include some cash and short maturity bonds send right now. We'd recommend I bonds there adjusted every six months for inflation and currently are yielding nearly 10%. You can't redeem them for a year and if you catch them in before five years you'll lose a few months interest but in this current inflationary. They're tough to be gold would be another safe haven investment and a hedge against inflation. In theory it moves opposite of the market, but not always.

For that reason gold should be a very small part of your portfolio. No more than five or 10% in my view if you're not using a Robo advisor or a target date fund. You have to decide what the other 90% of your portfolio will be here. We look to Ecclesiastes 11 to give a portion to seven or even 28 for you do not know what disaster may happen on the earth. Your portfolio should be well diversified to whether recession without serious losses. Assets would include some index funds a fixed income securities like the I bonds I mentioned, and perhaps even real estate or real estate investment trusts while taking steps to get you through the next recession whenever it comes with peace of mind you're listening to moneywise live and find us online at live Donald. However, today would not live so if you hear that phone number. Please don't call to stay with this is great information ahead toward the Québec to moneywise live with us today some time off when away from the studio doing time with family and friends.

So don't call him lined up some questions that I know you said right back to the phones, Anniston, Alabama hi Stanley, how can you show regarding my artwork or time regular job. We have a lot of policies for ourselves and our kids. We, in case something happens whom would have money to be able to buy room and then maybe some extra money to get to the family will blast one of our children with cyber get their own life insurance so we we can servicing all of them have all cash value to him. It will catch me and we get that money will when I case to the end. I told me that that I could have it tax that hadn't been pretax and a little convinced about that. I feel like it was a pretext. But then again, maybe it wasn't just one question. Because what we wanted to return our and were debt-free. Now we want to cash our policies and and take that money that were resaved and invested somewhere and the premiums that we would've been paying to invest them is why don't we just don't know where to invest him for the best. You and so can you help me with those two questions yeah so this is cash value life insurance whole life is a right okay yes of the way that works is you know what's taxable is that portion beyond you know what you your cost basis what you paid into it so because they don't withdraw the taxes as it's growing over time as you take it out you you have a taxable portion beyond the what's called the policy basis, and so they should be able to give you that amount and then you would pay income taxes on that amount over and above the basis but I agree with you.

I like the idea of you getting whatever death benefit you need as pure term insurance, low cost, and then doing your savings separate and aside from an insurance policy so you know, if you're not looking for guarantees and you know you're not completely risk-averse you're going to get more upside potential with less fees and more flexibility. If you do your investing and saving outside of that, then based on your agent goals and objectives I'd be looking to use a stock and bond portfolio to do that, you know where you'd either use high-quality mutual funds are an advisor or Robo advisor depending on the kind of deal whether you looking for a passive or active approach, and the amount of money you know you have to invest, but give me any follow-up questions you have just on what I shared would be better own back on the life insurance policy for us to pull it all out and fight back to that in the year are they all for work they'll taxes for us out of. Would that be best would be better to let you talk to your CPA about that you just to see what would be the best option you have the benefit of them doing it is you know that monies withheld. You don't have to worry about whether or not you got it available in the tax time comes, and if there's you know estimated payments that need to be made. No, they'll go and send that right in immediately and so you won't have any penalties or interest if you hold down and wait and pay it all at the time you filed a the return but if you'd rather come to be in control over that money that I would just check with your tax preparer to say based on whatever taxes do you need to pay it in an advance on a quarterly basis is a quarterly estimated payment and if so, you know, how much do they recommend that you send then so I don't have a preference either way but if you're going to take that on yourself. I get some professional advice on stocks and bonds.

Right now I would be very okay.

What is your age 58 okay and what are you looking to invest a much do you have right now and would you be adding to it. While we want to invest this money when we cash a man and man would be adding probably looking at about $10,000 cash that would like them better and then probably on a monthly basis that lock up another thousand dollars a month and this is money you don't plan to touch for at least 10 years. I would say more like five okay yeah I'd probably connect to our friends@soundmindinvesting.org.

I think they can help you with the strategy. You could also use a Robo advisor like the Schwab intelligent portfolios are the Vanguard advisor or betterments any one of those three and they'll ask you a series of questions and then using a computer algorithm based on the answers you provided about your age, your risk tolerance your goals and objectives still build an ETF portfolio of ETF's that are basically indexes indexed to both stock indexes as well as bond indexes, so you'll capture the broad moves of the market in a portfolio that's tailored to your agent objectives, but it will be very low cost you less than half a percent a year, and as you invest that thousand dollars a month, it will automatically be reinvested and there aren't any transaction costs you just have that one fixed cost of probably 12:45 percent. So I check out betterment the Schwab intelligent portfolios are Vanguard advisor you can read some reviews on them and nerd wallet.com but that would be a great place for you to to be investing moving forward. And then I just check with your CPA with regard to the taxes on the life insurance and the Stanley appreciate you listening and calling Sir all the best in the days that I Northport Florida is where Maria's hi Marie. How can we help you for taking my call five years old. I bought a home in 2019, 142 and I have a balance of 90,000 little bit less than 90,000 from the inception. I put 400,900 amount no imprint on the principal.

I put a 20% down so I don't have the P and the PMI you know on the house. Yes, I have know what I get. I have an emergency fund of 10,000, and my question is to have a $60,000 in savings and I'd like to know if it's advisable to place that 60,000 on the balance of this loan, you know, just knock it down, because as I send my agent retirement.

I have no retirement investment except 96,000 know I see it's a living Marie on Social Security 09 still working full-time okay how long do you plan to keep working.

Well that's kind of where my I'm leaning I'm not in good health. I was looking at 70 back what you know that I'm 65, you know I like the idea of being debt-free, but I hate you don't have much to fall back on, except that emergency fund of 10,000. I hate for you to put all 60,000 gets the house. If you're not to be able to pay it off because you still got the mortgage was you amortize the loan so I probably hang on to what you have until you get to a place where you can pay the whole thing off once and then I do it because the three of that mortgage payment arguing of the Bible talk a bit more fear and thanks for your folks and again.

Just provide your team is away today taking some time off were not in the studio's note: but stay with us. We have a lot more to come on moneywise. This is biblical wisdom. Your financial decision moneywise was to host our team is taking some time off: we have some great questions lined up in advance will have you write back to the phone, Wilmington, Indiana hi Tricia, how can we help you.

Thank you for your time that I bought a house and I did not follow anybody's advice and did not have a down payment and use the USDA room. Now that housing market is different in my house is worth about 20,000 more than what I paid for it. I'm wondering if it would be a good idea to refinance and get away from the PMI so it's an FHA loan is a right I USDA loan so I would have to hello room for error and I'm not sure what those are until there are some okay yeah I would look into that. You know if it's a unit with an FHA loan, you're not able to get rid of that PMI you would have to switch to a conventional loan which would involve a refinance and you would have to have at least 20% equity in my hearing that you do believe you have 20% equity in the home now. I paid it down to the last check I made at least now I would have to have me I trade assessor can. It appeared to be about hundred hundred and 20,400 hundred 20,000 okay very good. What is your current interest rate is 5.25 okay and what is your credit score and a couple of months, but it is probably seven and something of that nature. Okay yeah good, documented income okay very good yeah I would look at the refi of the conventional loan because if you can establish 20% equity, which it sounds like you should be able to do that and you've got a interest rate right now 5 1/4 you should be able to get that down in a well over one percentage point or point, half which would be my minimum threshold to justify it as long as you plan to stay in this home for seven years plus, you can knock appointment half off the interest rate and get rid of the PMI at the same time, you'd be money ahead, so to speak. The key would just be you Tricia that I'd love for you to try to avoid extending the term so if you have 25 years left.

Let's either get a 25 year mortgage, or at least base your payment on a 25 year amortization so you're not lowering the rate but extending the term, but if you can do that. I think you would be accomplishing all of the factors that would make this worthwhile. I would give at least three lenders to give you an offer on this and I get two of them at least from an online bank and you can find out who has the best loan programs. Right now the bank rate.com so I'd be looking to refinance and accomplish several things at once, including eliminating that private mortgage insurance right thank you very good. You're welcome.

Thank you for going today. Let's stay in Indiana Indianapolis is where Christina is Christina how can help go by working in be right that we are getting though we are 40. Our goal has always been you are mortgage before we retire so the last kilobyte.

Just get back might be better right now. I have read our mortgage borrowing because we began no idea ;-) rather than using our cash in hand.

See you on pay for the home improvement that we would borrow that while many cheat because the interest rates are low and anything are available cash that dark stock market today fitting top market long longer term we get more motor return off that let's run through some of the numbers I get the gist of what he's recommending what you plan to spend on these renovations and improvements somewhere around 20,000 okay and what you have saved up the you're considering investing on.

It would be probably okay with me that we went all the house within about three years that we went get our money back quickly. Okay see you got 10 to 15,000 saved up is that in addition to what I would call your emergency fund. Okay, so you'd have to pull if you're an astute 20,000 renovations and you wanted to pay cash without touching the mortgage. It would require that you pulled at least 5 to 10,000 from your emergency fund to be able to fund the whole thing correct okay and you said you're looking to sell in three years so I wouldn't be refinancing your first mortgage for sure. I think the question is do you take out the home equity loan and and invest the difference home equity loan being able to be used to pay for the renovations, or do you pay cash. I think you know just given where you're out in the amount of money were talking about here, I'd probably opt for you all just paying for this cash as opposed to trying to put an extra 10 to 15,000 in the market right now given the short time horizon were talking about here, you know, I don't think the you were going to see anywhere you help significant returns in the next year or two. I think the mortgage can be pretty choppy, especially given the run scene is late so you will taking on debt unnecessarily be able to fund this renovation project got the money saved up and I assume you're contributing separately toward retirement accounts. Just think, is unnecessary. So if it were me I just pay for this out of your savings that's been earmarked for this and out of current cash flow, and then dogs get all that money back so you can decide plow that next to some extent okay.

We appreciate your call today. God bless you. You are listening to moneywise live with Rob West. Today's broadcast is prerecorded and that means were not taking any calls, but we've got some calls lined up and great information coming your way that we think you will find helpful.

So stick around for more moneywise live this brief arguing with us today. I moneywise live on the West Coast.

This is wisdom for your decisions. Our team is not here today so don't: this segment is but we got some great questions wonderful folks that we asked to call in advance and we are going to do that right now.

That's it right back to the phones. Beth is in Ohio and Beth.

What can I do for you hi Rob, thank you for your program.

I went and I started listening to this years ago I still looking at retiring from full-time work within the next 3 to 4 years. I currently my housing cost are currently about 25% of my income and but if I retire with that same mortgage. It would be about 33% of my retirement income so I'm I was hoping to knock that back over the next 3 to 4 years and I have the ability to have my mortgage recap so you know to get it more under email back to that 25%. So I was wondering what you thought of doing that versus putting that money aside for retirement.

Your mortgage interest rate. Interest rate is about 3 1/4%. Okay, you wouldn't be able to have it paid off. What you're saying is the reductions you would give. By prioritizing paying down the mortgage in the next three years or so would allow you to have it recast such that it would revert back to 25% of your now lower income is that right and you feel like that, you know, if you cut out your account. Basically, you're not contributing to your retirement accounts anymore. You just get whatever growth occurs from the investments that are there. Plus whatever other income sources you have.

You feel like that will allow you to balance your budget with this recast mortgage that's a little bit lower yeah yeah okay without it until I get current compound about 125,000. No I would not need to catch that except for emergency okay yeah I like that plan. That's because you know were expecting a choppy market here me nobody knows it could go straight up from here but we also could hit a recession. We got some some headwinds and I think most people that I trust are looking for tempered returns in the next few years, perhaps not as much as we've seen you on the last couple years for sure and even the decade before that.

So I think if you have kind of this guaranteed reduction in your mortgage which is you said is your absolute biggest expense every month. That brings it in line with the income sources you know you'll have that something you can count on, as opposed to you investing in this your 401(k) retirement account three years outside retirement, which would mean in order to fully maximize that it have to be invested in stocks and we could see some declines that could even be significant in the next few years. Now ideally wouldn't touch it and it would come back and so forth. And that money would be there for the future, but I just like kind of the certainty of you entering retirement with a budget that balances in something that you can really count on and having that that one major expense right sized by you focusing on paying it off between now and then just gives me a lot of peace of mind. So that's also the way you're feeling that I would support the direction right right yeah I think I could see that much growth in three years. So I think I am feeling more comfortable with, you know, paying the mortgage down and getting a payment level are sunk right okay thank you yes ma'am. Thank you for checking in with us. God bless you. Listen to Greensburg, Indiana W GNR hi Norman looking to do for user Michael.

A little bit about flexible spending accounts. I was considering enrolling one.

Not sure at what point would be of benefit or where would yes this is offered through your work as a right through my employer. So basically it's a pretax benefit that you allows you to pay for eligible dependent care services so this would be in a preschool summer day camp of school before afterschool programs, but also could be no dependent child or adult day care. Even so, it's a simple way to save money for the purpose of taking care of family members while you continue to work in the benefits. Are you reducing your overall tax burden because the funds are taken out of your paycheck before taxes are deducted which saves you an average of you based on our date of about 30% on these dependent care services so I like it for that purpose. If you know you're going to have a need for that we are and help out here on daycare and related related expense. Okay so I think for that reason, you know, this could make a lot of sense for you to consider as you look at options to reduce the overall expensing the big win here is just from a tax standpoint, so I would just estimate, what you feel like you're going to need on a 12 month basis and then you orient your contributions into the FSA know around what that true need is so that you have only going and what you will use on 12 month basis. But if you know those expenses are coming and these can this account can be used for that purpose.

I think it makes a lot of sense, so we appreciate your call. Thanks for checking in with us and all the best to use her. Hey, let's take an email or two.

We don't get a lot of time to do these when you send your emails to questions moneywise.org we do our best to get them on the Aaron of this one comes from Gloria. She says I'm a regular tither. I've put my house up for sale on wondering how do I tithe on the sale like title, the asking price. The price that I bring home after realtors taxes clothing title for closing, title, etc., or what. It's a great question Gloria.you know, if we apply the principle of the ties to anything.

It's based on the increase. So when you sell a home.

The question is, what is your increase and it's not the selling price. It is the selling price minus the transaction costs. You mentioned several of those but also minus and this is a big one. Your original purchase price, so you so house for 400,000 you bought it for 200,000.

But you know you had 25,000 expenses and what say you added 50,000 to it in improvements that stayed with the property and increase the value so your profit would be the net of all of that original is the selling price minus original purchase price minus the transaction costs of selling it, minus any improvements that you made along the way and then you would take God and apply the 10th to it and that would tell you very quickly what it is that your time. So that's a great question. I appreciate you wanting to honor the Lord with your giving through your assets, including home sale and comfortable. They moneywise live in moneywise media are listener supported.

So if you'd like to consider a gift of this ministry we be grateful it's quick and easy for you to give online on her website to send moneywise live.org and click the donate button that goes directly to ensure that we can continue all of the operations we have here on a regular basis and we got some exciting plans for the months ahead. All the things will be able to deliver to you. And here's the gold together as a community of stewards, we can be more effective in managing the accident as I will be right back moneywise live biblical wisdom for your financial decisions. Our team is off today were not in the studio, so don't call and we got some great questions lined up in advance.

That's it right back to the phone with Ricky's in Georgia. Ricky we have a about $230,000 when my wife got laid off last year she lost her job and we took our Charles Schwab account just sitting there not doing sorry for you and was just curious. You know what we might make sure Ricky, I'm sorry to hear about your wife getting laid off, it still in the IRA at Schwab correct.

You didn't take it out and move it to a taxable account now so we just moved from her company and straight into that whole amount. Got it. Okay, what are your ages is now I'm 67 and see 65 okay are you all is she she found another job.

No, I don't want to work anymore.

Got it okay and are you still working are you retired yeah I'm part-time tired out. I work part-time okay very good.

Tell me about your income sources other than that part-time income are you collecting Social Security yes what about Social Security. I have around him well. We got about 60,000 in savings, but no other income just so your living off of Social Security plus your part-time income.

Well, really just like blanking my part. Sincerely, okay, great. Yes, I can see you are in pretty good shape in the sense that you know you don't have any expenses that are uncovered your living modestly, which means you so securities governed whatever you need and then you're continuing to work as you're able to.

Perhaps you enjoy that and that's just giving you money to put into savings you got plenty of liquid savings. It sounds like, and then you've got this Charles Schwab IRA so I think the key is Ricky is to get this invested in a way that's consistent with you all your ages goals and objectives.

There's not a need to take unnecessary risk with this account because your living modestly in your expenses are covered but at the same time given inflation, which means that the purchasing power is declining every month at this sits in cash or money market wherever it is you be a good thing to have a portion of this maybe a small portion in some high quality stocks and the rest of it, perhaps in some fixed income type instruments like bonds and if you are comfortable with that, with the goal of not eight or 10% a year, but a goal of 45% a year to grow it and even if we got into recession in the market was down. Keep in mind you wouldn't sell anything because you don't need to. You don't need the money so you can wait it out and after it recovered, it would move to higher ground, at least historically speaking, so I think that's probably the best move for you guys so that this money is working for you, and given that it's a sizable sum of money I'd encourage you to hire an investment professional to make these decisions for you. Again, based on your goals and objectives, not their own, of course. Are you open to have an advisor invest this for you sure were willing to help someone. Yeah, I think that would be a great thing and obviously at the end of the day you and your wife are the stewards so you need to make the decision, but at least you would know that there's a plan here in this money is growing and it's not losing your purchasing power every month. I'd encourage you Ricky to head to our website moneywise live.org and then click the button that says find a CK that stands for certified kingdom advisor.

I'd interviewed two or three of your choosing. Find the one that's the best fit.

And if you felt comfortable moving that direction and have them you deploy these funds on a very conservative investment basis and I think at the end of the day you'd be in really good shape because you got your expenses covered you got a nest egg here that would be growing if you had unexpected expenses down the road long term care other needs like that you have something that you could access to be able to pay for that and if not, then this would be a great no nest egg to ultimately give away to ministry, charity or errors, so I'm I think that will get you going in the right direction to get our website is moneywise live.org. We appreciate your call. Ricky Letson, next to Lakeland, Florida hi Maria, how can help you. Thank you for taking my call and impolite for over 20 years. I'm 60 why I walked to the same company that last 30 years. I am no longer working with them late September I started working independently for a contractor for a company and my question and said I started that and Clinton about about about a month now.

Take me traveling to different counties in Florida 18 and just wanted to know if I should what I take to become incorporated when LLC in order to be able to just write off what impact each yeah very good well and typically what you want to do is create what's called an S Corp. which is for a sole proprietor and essentially all of the taxes flow down to you personally see you choose a business name you'd create and file your articles of incorporation with the state and then you if you wanted to look at an LLC that would essentially limit your personal liability, which just means that business debts owned by the business and other claims on the business like liens and lawsuits are limited to the assets of the business itself and you can either do all of this yourself or you can hire an attorney to help you which is what I would recommend that you do, you point that registered agent, you pay the fees to publish the notice of intent to create the LLC and then the attorney would draft what's called the LLC operating agreement, but the key pieces that you establish the Corporation so that you can separate your personal affairs and finances from the business. Even though it's taxed at the personal level and so I would talk to CPA about setting all this up to make sure that it's done properly and then I'd probably get that an attorney to help you file to form the business register it in the state of the business. Articles of incorporation and all the annual filings that you need to do to stay in complaint you want somebody to help you can accept all of that yellow so you don't miss anything along the way and go. This would be a great tool for you as you operate your business just to make sure that to begin your personal things are treated separately and to your point about being able to deduct business expenses that's going to help with the IRS because you build a clearly delineate what was for the business versus what was for you personally without the Corporation it's very difficult to do that, and the IRS can challenge some of those decisions as being your personal expenses. Just because there's not a clear line that divides the two so I would take that next step.

Perhaps get an attorney. Talk to a CPA get all of this set up, and I think you once everything is in place you can handle it yourself or you have someone do the annual filings for you that will be up to you but all the best to you in this business endeavor Maria. We appreciate your call today.

Next up, Alan Minnesota, Al, thanks for your call. How can help you.

Thank you.

Particular call you earlier this week Kelly question came in about titling of accounts and my wife and I have all of our accounts in joint that would included houses are 3 acres of land are bank accounts and investment, auto insurance, homeowners insurance, utility bills, credit cards are question is, are there any accounts that we should not have enjoyed and why is your liability factor yeah I would I would talk to an attorney about that now, just to get a legal opinion on that I would be comfortable necessarily lending a legal opinion but what I would just say is you know as a married couple.

If you're in a community property state, a spouse's assets are subject to the other spouse's debts.

So it really doesn't matter whether it's titled or not that way. It's just going to generally be seen as a spousal asset and the benefit of having a title jointly is that one person still remains or keeps access to the asset upon the other person's death without having to wait for probate didn't and so forth. So there is some real functional benefits to having your assets titled jointly and you know you're probably each to be liable for the other along the way. Anyway, you know, in most states, but if you have specific questions about your whether things should be titled differently whether it makes sense to you have a living trust or use a transfer on death as opposed to joint tenants with right of survivorship or some other limit to your liability.

You could certainly talk to an attorney about that of the other thing I would consider while were talking about liability.

I was having an umbrella policy of somewhere between two and $5 million depending upon you know what you have going on in any potential risks that would make that you increase that that would just cover your beyond the normal limits of your insurance policies like auto insurance or homeowners insurance. If there was an accident or an event that push beyond that.

But in terms of the titling.

I think at the end of the day. If you have specific concerns. I would just sit down with an attorney and talk through that but generally speaking I don't see a reason why you wouldn't want to have everything title jointly.

I hope that helps us early appreciate you listening it going today. God bless you as we think about applying God's wisdom to our financial decisions and choices. It begins with the recognition that God owns it all. That's the starting point for all of us then that places us in the proper role of steward and money becomes a tool to accomplish God's purposes, so the operative question at that point is Lord Master, what do you want me to do with your money and I think as we asked the question, he'll reveal to us where he is leading us and how money can be used to accomplish that this is been an encouragement to you today moneywise live as a partnership between Moody radio and moneywise media say thank you to my team today.

Robert Dan Amy. We appreciate you being here as well come back and join us next time for another edition moneywise live will see that