A Super Tuesday in North Carolina

Family policy matters in engaging and informative weekly radio show and podcast produced by the North Carolina family policy Council hi this is John Ralston presidency family and were grateful to have you with us for this week's program is our prayer that you will be informed, encouraged and inspired by what you hear on family policy matters and that you will for better equipped to be a voice of persuasion for family values in your community, state and nation, and now here's our house to family policy matters Tracy to veterans. Thanks for joining us this week for family policy matters North Carolina joins 15 other states this week for super Tuesday, which somewhat officially kicks the 2020 election season into high gear.

While most of the news is focused on the national stage. There are a lots of local races that are equally and often even more important to the daily life of North Carolinians here in North Carolina.

In addition to voting for our nations president and US Sen. We also vote for 13 North Carolina seats in the U.S. House, we will choose our states governor the entire Council of State eight state level, judges and all 170 members of the Gen. assembly.

That's a lot of races and candidates to keep straight forward joined today by Anna Bevan gravelly Executive Director of the North Carolina free enterprise foundation which provides analysis of the political landscape and its impact on North Carolina's business environment. Anna Bevan is going to help us get a lay of the land, so to speak for the 2020 elections here in North Carolina. Anna Bevan gravelly welcome to family policy matters gravity before we dive into all of these races and candidates. Let's talk about the voters we know North Carolina is consistently ranked as one of the best states to live and work, which means a lot of people are moving here. So what does a look at voter registration trends tell us about what's going on here North Carolina. You're absolutely right. North Carolina continued to rank at the top of nearly every list and really that's resulted in about 1.1 million new registered voters in the November 8, 2016 election and not a lot when it is incredible. So when you look at those, are we turning more blue, more better. We purple what's going on with us 25% of those new registered voters come from weight and Mecklenburg County which sort of fits with the trend that were seeing with more people wanting to move to urban areas over rural areas, but the real will take away for this one I think is really impactful in the election in the fall. 61% of the new registered voters under the age of 30 and so with that about 45% of them are registered unaffiliated that working a really high increase on new registered voters registering as unaffiliated really rejecting being a part of the typical two-party model of Republican and Democrat, but overall the state itself is looking like 1/3 third third, 1/3 unaffiliated third Democrat in the third Republican class very interesting one.

North Carolina is the only state in the nation with new legislative and congressional maps after being required to redraw them and redraw them. What effect does that have on things like candidate recruitment, fundraising and campaigning quite a few open feet and so what that really means is that the incumbent is not running has decided not to run in that race either at all in the election or they decided to run for a different office and a lot of the have to do with fatigue.

There fatigue on the candidate side fatigue on the voter side because people run for office because they want to make life better for people that want to improve the situation, the circumstances in the community and when we have the third election in a row with new maps were guaranteed a force with the census this year and then will redraw the maps in 2021 but that it makes it really difficult for them to get to know their constituents really understand what matters to their community and on the flipside, the voter is very confused about who their elected official is is running in their district makes it really hard for them to get to know their representative that has a rippling effect on on all the pieces on recruitment candidates wanting to run. They don't really understand their district or just really tired of having the new circumstances and the fatigue of just the unknown and that it also impacts the fundraising because of day are not known to their to their general public.

Then go to raise enough money to compete on the playground, Anna Bevan, what we learn to think from the results of the primaries for president in the various congressional races that may give us insight into how the rest of this election season will shape up. And, of course, this program is airing during the week that primary elections are happening in North Carolina.

The most important election watch certainly is the presidential election for the Democrat nominee that is going to be a huge factor in how campaigns both Republican and Democrat decide to message designed to target holder messaging for Michael Bloomberg ordered Joe Biden, then it would be for a Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren got a lot of things waiting in the wings. If you will, when it comes to messaging and turning out and like you mentioned earlier with a 61% new voters under the age of 30.

That's really going to impact how much they are to be targeted in in the election cycle itself. See for your organization does a lot of research and analysis related to campaign funding. We know that North Carolina has seen increasing levels of out-of-state funding in recent elections, so do you expect that to continue this time and what impact does that have on candidates platforms and braces here… Absolutely going to be a trend that continues. I like to look at the night district special election, the one between Dan Bishop and Dan McCready and that was the second most expensive special election health race in US history and I was at $12.4 million race is a lot a lot about that money that came into that race and that is a trend that will continue into into 2020 calendar races are having primaries and again that's happening this weekend. Does that tell us anything interesting. Yeah so quite a few feet and district do have primaries, but I think going along with the amount of fatigue with the redistricting being the third election in a row with new maps were quite a few uncontested races as well and it turned out that a good number of them are on the Republican side that are being contested in uncontested on the Democrat side what that can end up looking like in the general. I'm not quite sure because it shifts a lot of the energy and a lot of the focus to being in November will see a longer runway on Father's Day. The more individual getting the word out and spreading the message and building a grassroots movement and having longer conversations with those individuals that can get the money to help them cross the finish line so course, North Carolina has a divided government right now Democrat governor Republican lieutenant governor and Republican majorities in both chambers, but not super majorities about change chambers of the Gen. assembly, so we seen some quite a bit of fighting going on the last few years.

Do you anticipate that divided government will be a continuing trend here North Carolina for the near future. Yeah. Fade out to work through 2022 and 20, 24 on with our voter registration sitting at about 1/3 of third third divide between Democrats and Republicans in unaffiliated that makes the fight for the middle so much more, and really does lend itself to be split and seemingly schizophrenic when you have a Democrat at the top of a Republican lieutenant governor.

Then you have Republican control and the House and the Senate does end up with a lot of infighting and a lot of gridlock will see that more to come. So in the Council of State and Gen. assembly races. There are a lot of current members retiring and former members looking to return to state government. So what might all of that means for the partisan breakdown and say government we have quite a few incumbents that are not running. There are 16 in the how and 11 in the Senate, not breakdowns 12 Republican on how and seven Republican on the Senate in three Democrat and that will have a large impact on fundraising. One of the advantages of being an incumbent and in running is that you have a voting record built-up name ID and also have a chance to really connect with your constituents and former members that are coming back think this is one of the more interesting things that were distinguishing more former members come back and run in the Gen. assembly. Eight in the house and their seven in the Senate, which to my knowledge this is one about the larger groupings of four members coming to seek their feet again and I think that the redistricting conversation has increased the likelihood of their being able to pick up the seat and maybe win in the Chancellor, they wouldn't have before and biggest impact here is is on the fundraising side and then also for relationship building. So the change in maps we talked about that a little bit earlier have negative effects on any or is swaying any of the of the districts from one party to the other that have been redrawn make them more competitive. I think that there are a lot of factors that will determine whether or not they'll be soul flip going from one party to the other party, but the general family when redrawing the map made district more competitive, which went from having maybe a one or two point difference instead of a five or six point difference which is denied again because a lot more strife or difficulty for both sides. When you shift district for being more competitive. There much more urgency and there is a heightened sense of competition between the two candidates that come out of the primary and really make it to the general, though not too much, not much a guarantee on the flip much more guaranteed Anna on the competition side. So what's the most important thing you think we're going to learn coming out of the primary election on March 3.

Here, North Carolina Elizabeth a little bit before in the show but the number one thing that I'm to be watching is most likely candidate for the presidential nominee for the Democratic Party is going to be impacted so much in North Carolina impact messaging grassroots tactics and even the amount of money to campaign used to target you talk about targeting a millennial or in under 30. It can be very different than targeting my parents or my grandparents because those tactics grandparents and and parent mail and phone calls are much more trusted in the left extent that when you look at targeting a young person.

It's all through a digital device for their phone or their iPad or streaming service and those tactics are extremely expensive, though, you're looking at a huge swing and the amount of money that braces are gonna cost depending on who that likely presidential nominee is basically the Democrat party's rights size. If you would, and I know you feel this way that local is so important, and although we are keeping an eye on what's going on in the national level. We just cannot discount how important all these local races are no, you're absolutely right and I think you said in the intro for the show about how North Carolina is a great place to live and work and play and the reason why that's the case, and because of the local policy that passed in the local official to go to Raleigh to represent their constituents and the tears been a lot of confusion and a lot of change with on being the only state in the nation to have new legislative maps and new congressional maps. So not only are we to have the focus from a national standpoint but a local races are also to see an increase in out-of-state funding just because of how important this date is were truly our battleground state all levels for just about out of time for this week before we go, Anna Bevan where listeners go to learn more about the elections here North Carolina and follow your work@ncfreewebsitemp3.org are you. Stay tuned into Twitter at MCF EF I will Anna Bevan gravelly Executive Director of the North Carolina free enterprise foundation. Thank you so much for joining us on family policy matters listening to family policy. We hope you enjoy the program to do it again next week to listen to the show on law and to learn more about into families work to inform, encourage and inspire families across a lot of our website into family.award that's into family.org. Thanks again for listening and may God bless you and your family